Snake Plissken - Escape from New York 1981
Or perhaps some sort of musical chairs reference would be better since it appears likely that we'll be escaping to NY (and other cities) in the near future. The Atlantic has a story about this very subject titled, "The Next Slum?" Citing actual research studies (as opposed to my normal routine of pure speculation), they are noting that when it comes to the changing housing market, the subprime meltdown isn't the whole picture. There seems to be some actual and preexisting desire to flee the 'burbs. (Gasp!)
But the story of vacant suburban homes and declining suburban neighborhoods did not begin with the crisis, and will not end with it. A structural change is under way in the housing market—a major shift in the way many Americans want to live and work.
So there is consumer demand at play. Looking at how we got here in the first place is both fascinating and sad:
The suburban transformation that began in 1946, as GIs returned home, took almost half a century to complete, as first people, then retail, then jobs moved out of cities and into new subdivisions, malls, and office parks. As families decamped for the suburbs, they left behind out-of-fashion real estate, a poorer residential base, and rising crime. Once-thriving central-city retail districts were killed off by the combination of regional suburban malls and the 1960s riots. By the end of the 1970s, people seeking safety and good schools generally had little alternative but to move to the suburbs.
Until very recently, I hadn't realized that so many people wanted a walkable life. My whole vision of the future was that without oil issues (like, you know, running out) people would give up the keys to the car and the suburban home when the keys were pried from their cold, dead hands. Reality is as merciless as gravity, though:
If gasoline and heating costs continue to rise, conventional suburban living may not be much of a bargain in the future. And as more Americans, particularly affluent Americans, move into urban communities, families may find that some of the suburbs’ other big advantages—better schools and safer communities—have eroded. Schooling and safety are likely to improve in urban areas, as those areas continue to gentrify; they may worsen in many suburbs if the tax base—often highly dependent on house values and new development—deteriorates. Many of the fringe counties in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, for instance, are projecting big budget deficits in 2008. Only Washington itself is expecting a large surplus. Fifteen years ago, this budget situation was reversed.
One thing to note though, is that not every suburb will fail. There are plenty of them that have the right combination of location and amenities to survive in tact:
Those that are affluent and relatively close to central cities—especially those along rail lines—are likely to remain in high demand. Some, especially those that offer a thriving, walkable urban core, may find that even the large-lot, residential-only neighborhoods around that core increase in value.
On the other hand, many inner suburbs that are on the wrong side of town, and poorly served by public transport, are already suffering what looks like inexorable decline. Low-income people, displaced from gentrifying inner cities, have moved in, and longtime residents, seeking more space and nicer neighborhoods, have moved out.
And finally, I think this doesn't take into consideration Peak Oil, but I suppose with a build-up of public transportation this could be true:
Perhaps most important, the shift to walkable urban environments will give more people what they seem to want. I doubt the swing toward urban living will ever proceed as far as the swing toward the suburbs did in the 20th century; many people will still prefer the bigger houses and car-based lifestyles of conventional suburbs. But there will almost certainly be more of a balance between walkable and drivable communities—allowing people in most areas a wider variety of choices.
It seems that much of the difference between desirable and potential slum may be the age of the housing. Homes built more recently tend to be further away from city centers. They tend to be built more cheaply, cost more for city services because of low density, and often lack any real architecture or individualism. They also tend to be car-only when it comes to transportation to anywhere. Clogged freeways for long commutes are undoubtedly the reason people are more willing to change their living arrangements. Once someone experiences the joys of a short daily commute and the community experience of a local farmer's market, they might not think so highly of their McMansion. But that's just my opinion, and I could be wrong.
Escape the Suburbs Tips: If you really want out, here's my quick guide to gittin' 'er done.
1. Decide where you want to go.
2. Craigslist/eBay/garage sale/donate/throw out all the excess crap you don't really need or ever use. You know you've got too much stuff, and you're downsizing and simplifying, so make it hurt.
3. Interview local realtors until you find one who is smart, experienced and will tell you the truth about your property, not what you want to hear.
4. Put all the excess crap you can't bear to get rid of but don't really use often in a local storage shed. Check into using portable storage modules. Your home needs to be ready for sale, not ready to show off your taste.
5. Get the little projects done that you never have time for, but didn't mind living with.
6. Price the home to sell and don't look back.
7. If you haven't found your perfect new home or are in a totally new area, rent for awhile. If you used portable storage modules, have them shipped to your new location and leave what you can in storage.
8. Move into your new permanent home and (whether buying or renting) unpack all the crap you decided to keep. Get rid of anything you don't need. The saying goes, three moves equals a fire.
9. Walk to the stores and restaurants from now on. Whistle and smile while you do, because you got a seat when the music stopped.
