KansasCity.com is reporting that "Gasoline usage heads down." They note that: "Gas consumption so far this year is down about 0.2 percent compared to last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. The federal agency is predicting that gasoline demand will be down 0.4 percent this summer and 0.3 percent for the year. That may not sound like much, but it would be the first time since 1991 that there’s been a decline in annual gas consumption. And it would be only the eighth year since 1951 in which demand for gasoline has declined."
Also noted: "According to AAA, the national average on Monday for a gallon of gasoline was $3.50 a gallon, or 64 cents higher than a year ago. Diesel was $4.20 per gallon, or $1.27 higher than a year ago."
Check out which areas are driving less these days and you'll see that the people with the coldest winters generally have reduced driving the most. It might strike one as strange since the weather in the west and south is generally more conducive to not driving, but I'm guessing it has more to do with the cities and public transportation options. I would have thought the hearty folk of the west would lead the way, but then I look out the window and reality slaps me upside the back of the head.
I also thought their poll was pretty interesting. The big winner was Fewer/shorter leisure trips. Okay, but that's just lazy being lazier by not doing something like going to the mall for fun. Buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle suprises me not in the least since doing so means we can still drive, drive, drive. And as a bonus, these new converts can make fun of anyone driving an SUV as stupid or short-sighted. Where's my eye rolling emoticon??? The big surprise? Walking or riding a bike actually beat out carpooling and mass transit. Wow, I did not see that one coming. That type of change is one that actually takes physical effort. Could it be that people are catching on to the great time-saving, fat-burning, better than meds bicycling lifestyle? Um, probably not yet is my guess. Plus, perhaps the responses are mostly local and therefore somewhat skewed. I'd really like to see the results on a national scale.
Back to cost vs demand. So if I do my math properly, I start with a gas price last year of $2.86. The additional $.64 per gallon this year is a 22.4% increase. Usage is down .2%. This can only mean that if we wanted to reduce our fuel useage by 50% gas would have to be approximately $58.80 per gallon? Okay, so I realize it doesn't work that way, but it kinda sorta doesn't sound all that far-fetched, does it?
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The big surprise? Walking or riding a bike actually beat out carpooling and mass transit. Wow, I did not see that one coming. That type of change is one that actually takes physical effort. Could it be that people are catching on to the great time-saving, fat-burning, better than meds bicycling lifestyle?
Here's my twisted explanation:
I noticed that it's harder to meet people in L.A. than New York. My wife and I have discussed this with several folks who've been on both coasts, and they agreed, it takes longer to build even a small community.
I believe the reason is that in SoCal, you spend a helluva lotta time by yourself, or with folks in your nuclear family, driving. In New York, especially in Manhattan, from the first step you take out of your building, you're in the bristling mass of humanity.
So, if that I-just-pulled-this-outta-my-posterior observation has any truth to it, then giving people who are used to being cocooned a choice between being around "strangers" (the people formerly known as "your community") and being by themselves, even if it means more work, they're going to choose not to be on the bus or train.
It's a trick of course, I noticed some time ago that I end up saying "Hello" and "Good Morning" to folks I see on the street on my way to and from work when I'm on a bike. Once people get used to saying Hi to "those people", they may be more receptive to communally shared resources.
Also, Atrios has made the observation before that people who live in places with horrible public transportation have no idea what life's like in a place where it actually benefits the quality of life.
Actually, I think you are absolutely correct. By not interacting much as a community, people forget how wonderful community feels, and often become insensitive to other's views and problems. Although, I have noticed that even with public transportation so available here, people still choose to isolate themselves with iPods and other devices. Aside from my bike being way cheaper than a bus or train, isolation is the next biggest reason I avoid them. Few people are friendly or engaging, and it's no fun standing there looking at my feet.
I read that post by Atrios and commented on it.
"Okay, I'll pay $58.80, but not a penny more!"
I'm sure we would find some (hummer) drivers who would still be gasing up at that point.
I do think there are added social benefits to public transportation or even individual cycling. Interaction is infinitely improved by being in the same vehicle with others or passing them "outside" where verbal pleasantries can be exchanged.
The only interaction happening in signal passenger SUV's is an expression of rage and anger.
Can't we all just get along and bike?
someone on a local radio station forum asked, what would your breaking point be, before you started not driving so much? five bucks a gallon? ten? i put up a lengthy response that basically said, i'm coming out ahead even though the price is higher now 'cause i'm doing a fifth as much driving as 2006 [and trying for a tenth as much in '09]... but by the way, saving money wasn't even on my radar screen when i started bike commuting [and it's still about sixth on my list of ten things i like about it] but it's turned out to be an important side benefit. a guy on the forum said, it never occured to him that he could counteract rising gas price by intentionally limiting the miles driven, but that it seemed really sensible, looking at the numbers [!].
people are slow learners, but they're beginning to get the idea. i never even thought of riding a bus around here, 'cause they only come by every hour and a half, stop by 9:00 pm, don't cover the whole town, and don't run at all on sundays and holidays. it's not close to worth it.
a lot of encouraging signs lately. still seeing more and more people every out biking to work. i went to a matt and kim show the other night [200 people in a little room in the basement of a bar... ha] and when it let out at 1:45 am there must have been 50 bikes out on the sidewalk.
One other possiblity with regards to the midwest and northeast. Both of these areas are heavy users of heating oil. Thus I think they;re going to be a lotmore aware of the high fuel cost = high everything else cost than the south or large portions of the west.
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